Marin County Real Estate in 2026, Predictions, Nuance, and Opportunity

If 2025 had a theme in Marin County real estate, it was conditioning. Not a crash. Not a frenzy. A steady recalibration.

Buyers adjusted to higher monthly payments. Sellers adjusted to a more selective buyer pool. And everyone learned that even in a quieter market, strategy matters.

As we move into 2026, I expect more homes to trade hands, modest price growth, and continued nuance between segments of the market. Updated, turnkey homes will continue to outperform. Homes that need work will require sharper pricing and patience.

Below is a grounded look at what actually happened in 2025, what national forecasts are signaling for 2026, and how those trends are likely to show up here in Marin County.

What 2025 Told Us in Marin County

Market data through late 2025 shows the Marin County housing market holding relatively steady after a period of volatility.

The overall median sold price across all property types hovered around the high $1.3M range and remained close to flat year over year. Inventory improved modestly, giving buyers more options and time to make decisions. Days on market increased slightly compared to the most competitive years, but well priced homes continued to sell.

When broken down by property type, a clearer picture emerges:

Single family homes showed stronger stability in pricing, with modest movement depending on location, condition, and presentation. Condos and townhomes experienced more softness, with some segments seeing downward pressure as affordability and HOA costs became larger considerations for buyers.

In short, 2025 was not a down market, but it was a selective one.

Mortgage Rates in 2026, What the Forecasts Are Really Saying

Mortgage rate predictions for 2026 are far more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Across a wide range of industry forecasts, the most common expectation is that 30 year fixed rates will fluctuate but generally land in the low to mid 6 percent range throughout the year. Some forecasts suggest temporary dips below that range if inflation continues to cool or if economic growth slows. Others expect rates to bounce modestly higher at times.

The key takeaway is not the exact number. It is stability.

Buyers do not need ultra low rates to move forward. They need confidence that rates are not going to spike unexpectedly. As rates stabilize, even at higher levels than the past decade, more buyers are willing to re-enter the market.

National 2026 Housing Outlook

At the national level, most major forecasts point to increased transaction volume and modest price appreciation.

Some projections call for a double digit increase in existing home sales year over year. Others are more conservative, forecasting low single digit growth. Nearly all agree that prices are expected to rise modestly rather than surge.

For Marin County, this matters because we are coming off a period of historically low transaction volume. Even a moderate shift in confidence can translate into a meaningful increase in activity locally.

My 2026 Marin County Predictions

More Homes Will Trade Hands

Buyers and sellers alike are tired of waiting. Life changes do not pause for interest rates or headlines.

As people grow families, downsize, change jobs, or reprioritize lifestyle, more households will decide that progress matters more than perfection. I expect 2026 to reflect that shift.

Prices Rise Modestly, But Unevenly

Overall price growth in Marin County is likely to be modest.

However, not all homes will perform the same.

Updated homes with modern systems, strong presentation, and clear inspection profiles will continue to command premium pricing. Homes with deferred maintenance or uncertainty will face more negotiation and longer days on market.

A Continued Story of Two Markets

This remains one of the most important realities heading into 2026.

Homes that are easy to say “yes” to tend to sell faster and stronger. Homes that require work, upgrades, or additional risk assessment require sharper strategy.

Insurance considerations, inspections, and buyer certainty now play a larger role in negotiations than they did several years ago.

Strategy Matters More Than Timing

The biggest winners in 2026 will not be the people who perfectly time a rate dip.

They will be the people who prepare properly, price realistically, and remove friction before going to market.

The same applies to buyers who enter with clarity, strong financing alignment, and the ability to act decisively.

How We Help Clients Navigate 2026

Most real estate moves are not simple.

Some clients need to buy and sell at the same time. Some want to improve a property before selling but do not want to put cash out of pocket. Others want flexibility and optionality.

We have some great solutions available that can help with:

• Preparing a home for sale with no upfront out of pocket cost to the homeowner.
  
  

• Buying before selling to reduce disruption - we have some buy before you sell programs available.
  
  

• Sell360 Program - Selling now, renovating, and participating in upside later with a second check.
  
  

My role is to act as an advisor and strategist, not a pressure source. If you are considering a move in 2026, I am always happy to help you map out a plan that fits your goals and timeline.

Corey Robinson | Journey Real Estate | DRE #01783258