December 2025 Marin & Sonoma Market Update: Rates Ease, Momentum Builds, and 2026 Is Looking Strong

by Corey Robinson

December 2025 Marin & Sonoma Market Update: Rates Ease, Momentum Builds, and 2026 Is Looking Strong

As we wrap up 2025, the North Bay real estate market is sending a clear message: despite the slower seasonal pace, Marin and Sonoma remain active, competitive, and full of opportunity for buyers and sellers who understand how to navigate the winter landscape. With mortgage rates ticking down, buyer inquiries rising, and early economic indicators pointing to a stronger 2026, now is the perfect moment to get ahead of the curve.

Below is a full breakdown of what happened in November and what it means for your real estate goals in Marin County, Sonoma County, and the greater Bay Area.

Marin County Market Overview

Marin continues to prove why it remains one of the most desirable real estate markets in the country. Even with tighter affordability and a slower seasonal window, the fundamentals are strong:

Median sold price: ~$1,650,000, an annual gain of roughly 3–4 percent.
Days on market: Homes are selling in about 27 days, remaining brisk compared to historical norms.
Sales volume: Nearly unchanged year over year, signaling persistent demand despite borrowing costs.
Inventory: With roughly 2.3 months of supply, Marin remains a lightly competitive sellers market heading into the holidays.

What this means:Well priced, well prepared homes continue to draw buyer interest. With fewer new listings coming online until late January, serious buyers are still out there waiting and watching for the right property.

Sonoma County Market OverviewSonoma County, by contrast, continues to present opportunity and negotiation space for buyers who value more land, lifestyle, and flexibility.

Median price: Around $825,000 for single family homes.
Days on market: Roughly 65 days, nearly double Marin’s pace.
Months of supply: Approximately 3 months, bordering on a balanced market.

What this means:Buyers have more breathing room and more leverage. Sellers still succeed when their home is well positioned, but pricing strategy matters here more than ever.

A Look Across the Bridge: San Francisco’s Rebound Matters in the North BaySan Francisco is experiencing a meaningful positive shift that is rippling outward into Marin and Sonoma. With a new mayor in office, crime metrics improving, office attendance increasing, and real estate activity rebounding, confidence is returning to the city. Historically, when San Francisco strengthens, Marin sees increased buyer spillover and Sonoma sees renewed interest from lifestyle seekers and hybrid workers.

The North Bay is already feeling early signs of that momentum.

National Real Estate Trends Shaping Buyer and Seller BehaviorYou do not need to speak economist to understand the current national narrative:

Mortgage rates have declined from highs above 7 percent into the low 6 percent range.
Purchase applications are up roughly 25–30 percent year over year, a clear indicator that buyers are stepping back in.
Refinance activity is increasing, though still far below pandemic levels.
The National Association of Realtors projects a 14 percent increase in existing home sales in 2026, alongside 3 percent price growth in 2025 and 4 percent in 2026.

Together, these shifts paint a picture of a market that is gradually stabilizing and preparing for renewed momentum.

Seasonality, Off-Market Activity, and Why Winter MattersDecember can feel slow, but don’t let the quiet fool you. This is one of the most strategic times of year for both buyers and sellers in Marin and Sonoma.

For Buyers

You face less competition in winter.
More homes are available off market or in “quiet” channels.
Sellers with homes sitting on the market are more open to negotiation.
Preparation now puts you ahead of the spring surge.

For Sellers

If you are targeting a spring or summer 2026 move, December and January are when the smartest sellers start preparing.
Pre listing planning, inspections, improvements, and staging all take time.
Listing in the right window next year could align with increasing buyer demand and improving rates.
Positioning your home early in 2026 may help you capitalize on the upward trajectory economists are predicting.

The Road Ahead in Marin & SonomaWhile the market feels seasonally calmer, the underlying indicators are increasingly positive. Marin’s low inventory continues to support strong pricing. Sonoma offers value and stability. San Francisco’s rebound adds regional momentum. National forecasts call for more sales, more activity, and modest appreciation.

Whether you’re planning to buy, sell, relocate, or invest, now is the time to prepare your strategy.

Let’s talk about how to make 2026 your most informed and empowered real estate year yet.

Corey Robinson | Journey Real Estate | DRE #01783258

December 2025 Marin & Sonoma Market Update: Rates Ease, Momentum Builds, and 2026 Is Looking Strong

by Corey Robinson

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