June 2026 Marin & Sonoma Real Estate Market Update: Summer Is Here, But Inventory Still Rules the Market

by Corey Robinson

June always feels like a transition month.

At our house, that means school is officially out. Charley wrapped up 3rd grade, and Bailey is being promoted from 5th grade and heading into middle school next year. Bailey seems completely ready for this next chapter. I’m still trying to process how we got here so quickly.

Real estate has its own version of a seasonal transition.

As we move from the spring market into summer, activity typically cools slightly in July and August. Families travel. Schedules become less predictable. Buyers and sellers spend more time planning vacations than planning moves.

But in Marin and Sonoma Counties, a seasonal slowdown does not necessarily mean weaker prices.

The biggest reason is inventory.

National Headlines Don’t Tell the Local Story

If you’ve been following national real estate news, you’ve probably seen plenty of mixed signals.

Mortgage rates remain in the mid-6 percent range as markets continue to digest inflation concerns, Federal Reserve policy, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Buyers remain active, but they are approaching purchases with more caution than they did during the ultra-low rate era.

Mortgage application activity has remained surprisingly resilient despite these headwinds, which reinforces what many of us are seeing firsthand: people still need to move.

Life continues regardless of headlines.

Families grow. Jobs change. Retirements happen. Kids start middle school.

The important thing to remember is that real estate is hyper-local.

What is happening nationally often has very little connection to what is happening in Marin County.

Southern Marin Remains Highly Competitive

One trend that continues to stand out is the strength of Southern Marin.

Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur, and portions of Southern San Rafael remain highly competitive. Demand remains strong, inventory remains constrained, and many buyers continue looking north from San Francisco.

The San Francisco market has shown renewed strength this year, particularly in the single-family home segment. As competition increases there, we continue to see buyers seeking additional space, lifestyle amenities, schools, and outdoor access in Marin.

The result is continued competition for desirable homes.Well-prepared listings in Southern Marin continue attracting strong interest and multiple offers.

Northern Marin Feels More Balanced

As you move north, conditions become more balanced.

Novato continues to offer opportunities that are increasingly difficult to find in Southern Marin. Entry-level inventory has improved, giving first-time buyers and move-up buyers more options than they have seen in recent years.

This doesn’t mean homes are sitting forever.

It simply means buyers have more choices and slightly more negotiating power than they might encounter farther south.

For many buyers who want access to Marin County without Southern Marin competition levels, Novato deserves serious consideration.

Great Homes Sell. Average Homes Sit.

One of the clearest themes of 2026 continues to be selectivity.

Buyers remain active.

But they are far more analytical than they were a few years ago.

Insurance costs matter.

HOA fees matter.

Deferred maintenance matters.

Commute patterns matter.

The result is a market where preparation is everything.

Homes that show beautifully, are priced correctly, and present a clear value proposition continue moving quickly.

Homes that miss the mark are often seeing longer market times and price adjustments.

Strategy matters more than ever.

Opportunities in the Condo Market

The condo and townhome segment continues to move more slowly than the single-family market.

For buyers, that creates opportunity.

Some excellent properties are available today with less competition and more favorable negotiating conditions than buyers may find elsewhere.

One property that deserves attention is our luxury waterfront listing at 1131 S. Eliseo Drive.

This lower-level waterfront residence offers an incredible lifestyle opportunity and highlights the value that currently exists within certain segments of the market.

Looking Ahead

Historically, July and August bring a modest slowdown in activity throughout Marin and Sonoma Counties.

But inventory remains limited.

Demand remains healthy.

And highly desirable homes continue attracting buyers.

My outlook remains largely unchanged:

Southern Marin should remain highly competitive.

Northern Marin should continue offering opportunities.

Well-prepared homes should continue outperforming.

And buyers who remain active and prepared will continue finding success.

Thank you for your continued trust, referrals, and support. It means more than you know.

If you, your family, friends, or coworkers are considering a move, I would be honored to help.

Corey RobinsonJourney Real EstateDRE #01783258

June 2026 Marin & Sonoma Real Estate Market Update: Summer Is Here, But Inventory Still Rules the Market

by Corey Robinson

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