Are Lower Rates Bringing Back the Marin & Sonoma Housing Rush?

by Corey Robinson

For the past two years, buyers across Marin County and Sonoma County have been battling high mortgage rates that squeezed affordability and kept many on the sidelines. Now, with whispers of rates dipping back into the 5s, a big question is surfacing in the local housing market: Are we about to see a rush of buyers return?

Why Rates Matter So Much in Marin & Sonoma

When rates rise, monthly payments climb, and that impacts affordability even more in higher-priced markets like Marin. For example, the median single-family home price in Marin County hovers around $1.5M, while Sonoma County is closer to $850K. At those levels, even a 1% change in interest rates can shift a buyer’s payment by hundreds or even thousands of dollars each month.

That’s why a potential move back into the 5s is so powerful. It could bring back demand from buyers who have been waiting for affordability to improve.

What Happens When Rates Drop

Historically, lower rates don’t just improve affordability, they also increase competition. Many Marin County buyers have been “waiting for the right time,” but when rates dip, they tend to act all at once. That surge in demand often leads to:

More multiple-offer situations
Faster days on market (DOM)
Upward pressure on home prices

In Sonoma County, the pattern is similar, but the lower average price point gives first-time buyers and move-up buyers even more incentive to jump in.

Local Insight: Marin vs. Sonoma

Marin County: With limited housing inventory and strong job markets nearby, even a slight increase in demand can make homes move quickly. Areas like Novato, San Rafael, and Mill Valley often feel the pressure first.
Sonoma County: While generally offering more affordability, competitive pressure is likely to return in hotspots like Petaluma, Santa Rosa, and Healdsburg, where lifestyle buyers and commuters overlap.

A Personal Perspective

Since Labor Day, I’ve felt a noticeable energy shift in the air. Fall is in full swing, and many clients are starting to re-engage in the market. I’m encouraging buyers not just to get pre-approved but to go a step further and get fully underwritten. That way, they can stay “actively patient” and be ready to pounce when the right property presents itself.

On the buyer side, we’re locking in great opportunities right now: negotiating lower prices, securing seller credits, and crafting creative terms to help clients get into homes they love. On the seller side, we’re going the extra mile to make sure homes stand out. That means thoughtful preparation, staging when possible, and strategic marketing across social media. In today’s market, it takes a lot more than just putting a sign in the ground to achieve a successful sale.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Buyers: If you’ve been waiting for affordability to improve, now is the time to position yourself ahead of the curve. When rates dip, homes will go fast.
Sellers: Lower rates can be the perfect storm: more qualified buyers, more competition, and the potential for stronger offers. If you’ve been considering listing in Marin or Sonoma, watching the rate environment closely is key.

Final Thought

If not now, then when? Rates in the 5s could spark a new wave of activity across Marin and Sonoma. The buyers who prepare today will be tomorrow’s success stories.

Ready to Make Your Move?

Whether you’re buying or selling in Marin or Sonoma County, our team at Journey Real Estate is here to guide you through the market with confidence. From creative negotiation strategies for buyers to full-service marketing and staging for sellers, we’ll make sure you’re positioned for success.

📲 Reach out today to start planning your next move.

Corey Robinson | Journey Real Estate

DRE #01783258

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